A Preliminary Look at the 117th Congress Reveals Great News for the GOP

A Preliminary Look at the 117th Congress Reveals Great News for the GOP

Democratic pollsters beclowned themselves in 2020 with their overly optimistic predictions that a great blue wave would hand their party total control of Congress. Unfortunately for them, this promised blue wave failed to materialize. And nowhere was that more apparent than in the House of Representatives. Democrats had been convinced they would increase their majority. Although the GOP will fall short of winning back control of the lower chamber, they’ve made tremendous gains.

As of 12 pm ET on Friday, RealClearPolitics shows that 401 House races have been called so far. Democrats have won 208 of those. They have lost five seats. The GOP has won 193, gaining six seats.

I compiled a list of uncalled House races and found some good news. GOP candidates are leading comfortably in 14 of them.

Additionally, of the eight races that remain very close, the Democratic candidate leads in only one of them and by a small number of votes. In the remaining seven, the GOP candidate is ahead and only two of those leads are small. For example, in Illinois District 14, Oberweis is ahead of Underwood by only 628 votes. In California 25, a mere 254 votes separate the candidates. In the remaining five states (in the tossup category), however, the Republican candidates enjoy leads ranging from 2,284 to 4,774 votes.

If the GOP picks up the 14 seats in which they are comfortably leading plus these five, they will wind up with a minimum of 212 seats.

I identified 11 uncalled races which will likely go to the Democrat candidate. Add these seats to their current total of 208, they will likely wind up with 223 seats or less.

Considering that Democrats believed they would add seats in this election, these results have to be incredibly disappointing to them.

Will the reduction in the size of their majority make a difference?

For starters, if Biden prevails in the presidential race, it will be far easier for the GOP to take back the House in 2022.

Already, there has been talk of infighting between the most radical wing of the party (the squad) and the more moderate Democrats. There are even rumors that Nancy Pelosi’s speakership may be challenged. At a minimum, her perceived power has certainly been diminished. Rep. Hakeem Jeffries’ (NY) name has been floated as a replacement for Pelosi, although he claims not to be interested.

At the very least, when very radical bills are introduced, bills that moderates are reluctant to support, it won’t take more than a handful of Democrats voting with Republicans to stop their passage. And those extreme measures that do manage to pass the House will be quickly squashed by Mitch McConnell in the Senate.

If the Senate remains in Republican control for the next two years, which is the most probable scenario, they will be able to block most of the Biden administration’s dangerous liberal initiatives. Of course, let’s hope that won’t be necessary.

Likely GOP (14)

Alaska District 1: 58%

GOP: Young: 63.3 percent

DEM: Galvin: 36.7 percent

Arizona District 6: 85%

GOP: Schweikert, 51.4

DEM: Tipirneni, 48.6

California District 4: 95%

GOP: McClintock 53.9

DEM: Kennedy 46.1

California District 8: 41%

GOP: Obernolte, 53.7

DEM: Bubser 46.3

California District 21: 45%

GOP: Valadao, 51.8

DEM: Cox, 48.2

California District 42: 48%

GOP: Calvert 55.5

DEM: O’Mara 44.5

California District 50: 66%

GOP: Issa, 52.9

DEM: Campa-Najjar 47.1

Louisiana District 5: 100%

Special Election: The top two finishers out of nine candidates, were both Republicans. They will face each other in January.

GOP: Letlow, 33.1

GOP: Harris, 16.6

Note: The third highest finisher is a Democrat, Sandra Christophe, who received 16.4% of the votes. It is conceivable, given the frequency with which this sort of thing has happened in the last few days, that Christophe could receive extra votes and surpass Harris, with 16.6. If that were to happen, Christophe would run against Letlow in January. However, only 33% of the total votes in this election went to Democratic candidates.

New Jersey District 2: 78%

GOP: Van Drew, 51.5 (Van Drew switched parties in 2019.)

DEM: Kennedy, 46.8

New York District 1: 100%

GOP: Zeldin, 61.3

DEM: Goroff, 38.7

New York District 2: 100%

GOP: Garbarino, 58.0

DEM: Gordon, 41.1

New York District 11: 87%

GOP: Malliotakis, 57.9

DEM: Rose, 42.1

New York District 22: 83%

GOP: Tenney, 54.9

DEM: Brindisi, 42.9

New York District 24: 100%

GOP: Katko, 58.5

DEM: Balter, 37.8

Likely DEM (11)

Arizona District 1: 93%

DEM: O’Halleran,  51.9

GOP: Shedd 48.1

California District 34: 85%

(Two Democrats are running against each other.)

DEM: Gomez, 52.8

DEM: Kim, 47.2

Georgia District 7: 100%

DEM: McCormick, 48.8

GOP: Bourdeaux, 51.2

Nevada District 3: 86%

DEM: Lee, 48.4

GOP: Rodimer 46.5

Nevada District 4: 67%

DEM: Horsford, 49.8

GOP: Marchant, 47.1

New York District 18: 100%

DEM: Maloney, 51.0

GOP: Farley, 48.1

New York District 19: 100%

DEM: Delgado, 50.3

GOP: Van De Water, 47.7

Pennsylvania District 7: 93%

DEM: Wild, 51.5

GOP: Scheller, 48.5

Pennsylvania District 8: 91%

DEM: Cartwright, 51.7

GOP: Bognet, 48.3

Virginia District 7: 100%

GOP: Freitas, 49.5

DEM: Spanberger, 50.5

Freitas maintained the lead in this race until new votes for Spanberger suddenly appeared on Thursday on a flash drive.

Washington District 8: 88%

DEM: Schrier, 52.4

GOP: Jensen, 47.6

Toss-ups (8)

(I have included the number of votes separating the candidates in this category at 12 pm ET on Friday. Source of Data: RealClearPolitics.)

Illinois District 14: 100%

Republican currently leads by 628 votes.

GOP: Oberweis, 50.1

DEM: Underwood, 49.9

California District 25: 80%

Republican currently leads by 265 votes.

GOP: Garcia, 50.0

DEM, Smith, 50.0

California District 39: 93%

Republican currently leads by 2,497 votes.

GOP: Kim, 50.4

DEM: Cisneros, 49.6

California District 48: 98%

Republican candidate currently leads by 4,774 votes.

GOP: Steel, 50.7

DEM: Rouda, 49.3

Iowa District 2: 100%

Democrat currently leads by 162 votes.

GOP: Miller-Meeks, 50.0

DEM: Hart, 50.0

New York District 3: 100%

Republican currently leads by 4,185.

GOP: Santos, 50.5

DEM: Suozzi, 49.0

Texas District 24: 100%

Republican currently leads by 4,489 votes.

GOP: Van Duyne, 48.8

DEM: Valenzuela, 47.5

Utah District 4: 85%

Republican currently leads by 2,284 votes.

GOP: Owens, 48.0

DEM: McAdams, 47.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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