Analysis: Breaking Down Which States Trump Needs to Win to Remain President
Normally, presidential elections are over and done with at this point, but primarily because of mail-in balloting, this one will drag on at least through tonight before the inevitable legal challenges start. To win an election, a candidate needs 270 electoral votes. Currently, Joe Biden has 233 votes while Donald Trump has 214.
The remaining states are as follows.
North Carolina: 15
It would be a shock if Trump lost Alaska (3), but they may be counting for weeks. In the interim, we can feel confident Trump will get their 3 electoral votes.
Trump is narrowly ahead in North Carolina (15) but is expected to win.
He’s also just ahead in Georgia (16), but many of the remaining votes are coming from the Atlanta area, which means the gap is going to close significantly and it is possible Trump could lose the state. If that were to happen, it’s over. Realistically, Trump HAS TO WIN Georgia to come out on top in the election.
IF Trump wins all 3 of those states, that will put him at 248 electoral votes.
In Arizona (11), Joe Biden is ahead, but roughly 75% of the remaining 600,000 ballots are coming from conservative Maricopa county. They should close the gap considerably, but will it be enough? Fox and the Associated Press don’t think so, but other decision outlets aren’t sure yet.
In Nevada (7), Biden is ahead by less than 8,000 votes and rather bizarrely, the state has announced they won’t be giving any more updates until Thursday.
Currently, Joe Biden is leading in Michigan (16) by about 30,000 votes with two percent of the state remaining to be counted. It’s not looking good there for Trump.
Then, there is Pennsylvania (20). Trump has an almost 400,000 vote lead there with 84% of the state counted, BUT many of the remaining votes will be mail-in ballots from democratic parts of the state. That means Biden is going to close the gap big time and could conceivably even pull ahead.
If Michigan is slipping away, that means Trump will need to win Georgia, pick-up Nevada or Arizona, and then take Pennsylvania. That’s not an easy road to victory, but it is still possible.