The states projected to pick up seats are Arizona (1), Colorado (1), Florida (2), Montana (1), North Carolina (1), Oregon (1), and Texas (3). Every state gaining seats voted for President Donald Trump in 2016, with the exception of Colorado and Oregon. The states losing seats are Alabama (-1), California (-1) Illinois (-1), Michigan (-1), Minnesota (-1), New York (-1), Ohio (-1), Pennsylvania (-1), Rhode Island (-1), and West Virginia (-1). This list is more evenly split politically, with California, Illinois, New York, and Rhode Island having voted blue in 2016 (as they always tend to).
States that voted for Trump as gaining eight seats and losing five (for a net +3), while states that voted for Hillary Clinton are gaining two seats while losing four (for a net -2). In other words, states that votes for Trump are expected to see an increase in representation – albeit an insignificantly small one.
New York was one of those expected to lose a seat (and could lose up to two), and the one getting the ax could be Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s.
According to PJ Media’s Matt Margolis:
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez may be a rising star in the Democratic Party, but the district she represents could potentially not exist following the 2020 Census since New York is expected to lose as many as two House seats.
According to The City, nearly 47 percent of her district is foreign-born, and more than a quarter are not citizens—both are segments of the population that are often underrepresented in the census due to concerns of taking part in an official government count, and her district has a higher percentage than any other district. This could mean that her district could be divided up in reapportionment, meaning that she might have to face another incumbent to stay in Congress. Frank Luntz says that the state’s Democrats are actually looking to “draw out” her district.
This has been on AOC’s radar, and in August she began encouraging her constituents (25% of which are illegal aliens) to partake in the Census. That’s unlikely to work, and AOC is unlikely to be able to defeat an incumbent. As a poll conducted by Quinnipiac found, she polls at a net negative, with 36% having a negative opinion of her compared to 23% with a positive one.