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Betting Odds Surge in Dr. Oz's Favor Following Trainwreck John Fetterman Debate Performance

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  • Source: Bongino
  • 10/26/2022
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While out on the campaign trail weeks ago, Democrat Pennsylvania Senate candidate John Fetterman roasted Dr. Mehmet Oz as "out-of-touch" after the Republican candidate released an ad where he cringely mispronounced the name of the grocer "Wegmans" as "Wegners." While that generated plenty of laughs for Team Fetterman, it's since become evident at last night's debate that Fetterman himself apparently can't pronounce any word *except* Wegmans.

While expectations were already low, the bar had to be below the floor for anyone to think Fetterman exceeded them.  There are dozens of videos circulating of Fetterman's incoherence during the debate, and they're all practically interchangeable, offering word salad in response to questions he rarely directly answered. It often seemed as if Fetterman was prepared to just repeat talking points - but he couldn't even read the script for those properly. 

To give just one example (of many), Fetterman's response to a question about whether he supports a $15 minimum wage was.  "We all have to make sure that everyone that works is able to, that's the most American bargain... that if you work full time you should be able to live in dignity as well true. And I believe they haven't had any business and uh as uh you can't have businesses being subsidized by uh paying individuals who simply can't evade to pay their own way."

Watch below:

At one point in the debate, when he was confronted on his flop-flop on fracking (which he publicly opposed for years and now claims to support), Fetterman replied "I do support fracking, and I don't, I don't... I support fracking, and I stand, and I do support fracking."

Joe Biden and Kamala Harris almost sound as articulate as Winston Churchil by comparison. 

While there are actually Democrats attempting to pretend that everything went fine for Fetterman (yes, really), the consensus among Pennsylvania voters who have functioning ears was that it was a trainwreck for Fetterman, with 82% in the swing state deeming Oz the victor. 

While we'll have to wait to see how the polls change, volume surged in betting markets (which do a better job of predicting election results than polls) during the debate, with Fetterman's odds crashing like the stock market on Biden's watch. 

Prior to the debate, someone had to bet 57 cents on Oz to win a $1 on the political betting website PredictIt, while someone who thinks Fetterman will win the race had to bet 47 cents to win $1. Converting these to probabilities doesn't add up to exactly 100% because the bid/ask on PredictIt, and potentially due to market illiquidity, but it roughly means that pre-debate, bettors were giving Oz about a 55% chance of winning the race, and Fetterman a 45% chance - plus or minus a few percentage points in either direction. While Oz had the edge, that's still basically a coin-flip when working with a sample size of one event. 

While only a few thousand dollars was being wagered on the race pre-debate, during the debate betting volume surged to nearly $100,000 for that hour, and Oz's implied chance of victory has surged to nearly seven in ten.

In response to the disastrous performance from Fetterman, the left's pundits have mainly resorted to accusing people who want Senators to be able to speak complete sentences of being bigoted against the disabled.

We'll see how that strategy works out for them in a couple weeks. 

Matt Palumbo is the author of The Man Behind the Curtain: Inside the Secret Network of George Soros
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