Biden Campaign Manager: Polls Are Inflated, Race Is Closer Than Media Believes
The media has been hypoing polls showing that Joe Biden is up double-digits as of late – but even the Biden campaign isn’t buying them.
After all, the polls had Hillary Clinton boasting a lead of 14-points against Donald Trump in late-October 2016, and we all know how that turned out.
According to The Hill:
Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden’s campaign manager, Jen O’Malley Dillon, says the race against President Trump is “far closer” than conventional wisdom suggests.
Dillon warned over Twitter on Wednesday night that the contest is “a lot closer.”
“Early voting is already underway in many states,” Dillon said. “Millions of voters have already cast their ballots. But there is still a long way to go in this campaign, and we think this race is far closer than folks on this website [Twitter] think. Like a lot closer.”
Now: Early voting is already underway in many states. Millions of voters have already cast their ballots. But there is still a long way to go in this campaign, and we think this race is far closer than folks on this website think. Like a lot closer. (4/?)
— Jen O'Malley Dillon (@jomalleydillon) October 15, 2020
During a recent grassroots summit, Dillon said that despite that the national polls claim to show, Biden is not up by double digits, and “those are inflated national public polling numbers.”
Biden campaign manager Jen O'Malley Dillon, in grassroots summit, emphasizes that their polling does NOT show a double-digit lead nationally.
"Please take the fact that we are not ahead by double digits"
“Those are inflated national public polling numbers” pic.twitter.com/v95za3XRGZ
— Shane Goldmacher (@ShaneGoldmacher) October 16, 2020
Yesterday Fox News obtained a three-page internal memo from the Biden campaign warning that President Trump can still win the race despite the media consensus that it’s all over because of the polls (even though the polls got everything wrong the last election cycle).
“[T]he reality is that this race is far closer than some of the punditry we’re seeing on Twitter and on TV would suggest,” Dillon cautioned in the memo. “Even the best polling can be wrong and that variables like turnout mean that in a number of critical swing states we are fundamentally tied.”
As I wrote about previously, if the polls are off by the same margin of error as they were in 2016, Trump has an easy road to victory in the electoral college.
The New York Times gave Hillary Clinton a nearly 90% chance of becoming president heading into the last election, but gave estimates this cycle about what we can expect if the polling was just as wrong now as it was back then. If the average poll is 100% accurate, they project Biden winning 353 electoral votes to Trump’s 185. For reference, the Times predicted that Hillary would win 347 electoral votes to Trump’s 191 in 2016 just going off the polls.
But what if we take the average poll at face value, and then subtract the difference of how much they were off by in 2016? In that case, Trump could be reasonably expected to win 278 electoral votes to Biden’s 260. (And given the Times’ track record with these kind of projections, Trump would probably lead by more).
The media would like to give the impression that the race is already over, but even the Biden campaign isn’t pretending that’s the case.