Biden Is Under-Performing Hillary Clinton in Battleground States She Lost
The liberal media is finally expressing concern over the riots that have occurred over the past few months, not out of any concern for the victims of the violence itself, but because they’re worried it will hurt Donald Trump in the polls. Even Biden finally gave a weak condemnation of violence, but we’re left to wonder what took him so long. After all, at least fifteen died during the initial wave of riots following the death of George Floyd, and he didn’t have a word to say then.
And we all know why. We’re witnessing the consequences of progressive leadership at the local level – and the last thing most voters want that at a national level too.
On election day, Hillary Clinton polled 6.5 points ahead of Trump in Wisconsin in the Real Clear Politics average (an aggregate of polls). Trump ended up winning the state by 0.7 points. Biden currently leads by 3.5 points in Wisconsin in the RCP.
The story is the same in North Carolina and Michigan. In North Carolina Trump lead Hillary by only 0.8 points on election day but ended up winning by 3.6. Biden is tied with Trump currently in the polls. In Michigan, Clinton lead by 3.6 points on election day, but Trump won by 0.3. Biden currently leads by 2.6 points.
Or more accurately, “supposedly leads.”
If we measure Hillary’s polling averages as of August 26th instead of election day, as the National Review’s David Harysanyi notes: Biden is +5.5 in Pennsylvania today [the 26th]. Hillary was +9.2 the same day in 2016. Florida is the only battleground state where Biden (+3.7) is outperforming Clinton (+2.7). (August 26th is chose as the date of reference because that’s when Harysanyi’s article was published).
If you feel like you’ve felt a shift in momentum in recent weeks, you’re not the only one. Those willing to literally put their money where their mouths are have warmed to Trump. According to OddsChecker, which aggregates gambling odds across betting platforms:
Donald Trump’s odds of re-election have today shortened to +100 – or 1/1 – indicating that the President’s chances of winning November’s election are now sat at 50%. This is the first time he has been at the 50% mark since 28th May. Some oddsmakers’ have even cut Trump’s odds to -110, demonstrative of a 52.38% likelihood of securing a second term. This latest move is the continuation of a trend that has been steady since the end of July, with Trump’s improvement inevitably coinciding with a slump for Democratic rival Joe Biden.
For reference, the betting odds only gave Trump an implied 20% chance of defeating Hilary Clinton on election day, and we all now how that turned out.