Biden’s Lead in the Black Vote Starts to Slip
Just days after Joe Biden told a black radio host that “if you have a problem figuring out whether you’re for me or Trump, then you ain’t black,” a poll reveals Biden lagging behind 2016 election silver medalist Hillary Clinton in garnering the black vote.
Or as Biden understands it, he’s lagging Hillary Clinton in garnering the not-black vote.
According to HotAir:
Fox News’s poll a few days ago had Biden up eight points nationally on Trump but with a note of caution for him.
Trump leads by 7 points among men and by 30 among rural whites. He won both groups by larger margins in 2016 (11 and 37 points respectively).
Biden leads by 20 points among women and 64 points among blacks. Compared to Hillary Clinton in 2016, he bests her performance among women (Clinton was +13) but lags among blacks (Clinton +81).
That’s a seventeen percentage point reduction in the gap by which Biden is winning the black vote compared to Hillary.
Biden’s “you ain’t black if you don’t vote for me” comment was one that a majority of black voters obviously disagree with. While that doesn’t mean they’ll change their vote for Trump, it does mean they’re offended by Democrats taking their vote for granted. According to Rasmussen Reports, only “27% of black voters – and 17% of Democrats – agree with Biden’s original statement.”
While Biden leads overall by eight points in the aforementioned Fox News poll, that’s reduced to a five point lead when you account for the fact that the poll’s sample is D+3. Other polls with similar results like the commonly cited Quinnipiac Poll have a sample that is D+10.
Furthermore, such polls (if accurate) only approximate the popular vote, not the electoral college. According to another poll from earlier this month, President Trump leads Biden in every single one of the fifteen battleground states (i.e. the ones that will actually determine the election). Overall his lead on Biden across those key states is by a 52-45 margin.
Biden also suffers from the problem that nobody voting for him actually seems to want to vote for him. Just take a look at the gap in voters claiming to be “very enthusiastic” supporters of their candidate in past presidential elections:
• 2020 – Joe Biden: 29-point deficit against President Trump.
• 2016 – Hillary Clinton: 13-point deficit against Donald Trump.
• 2012 – Mitt Romney: 25-point deficit against President Obama.
• 2008 – John McCain: 33-point deficit against Barack Obama.
• 2004 – John Kerry: 16-point deficit against President George W. Bush.
In every case, the candidate with the more enthusiastic voter base has won. What’s the chance this election will be the exception?