Biden’s Polling Lead in Pennsylvania Goes Up in Smoke
After months of taking a stance against fracking, Joe Biden took a pro-fracking stance recently in Pennsylvania. “I am not banning fracking. Let me say that again. I am not banning fracking. No matter how many times Donald Trump lies about me,” he said at the Carnegie Mellon University robotics institute. It’s no coincidence that Biden’s flop on fracking occurred in a state that has a significant fracking industry.
You don’t have to listen to “Donald Trump lies” to believe that Biden is opposed to fracking, you have to listen to Joe Biden’s comments (which are apparently now lies themselves).
SUPERCUT: Biden promises "no more" fracking if he's elected President. pic.twitter.com/iWcsU2Yam8
— Abigail Marone (@abigailmarone) August 31, 2020
His flip-flop is merely common sense because Pennsylvania isn’t a state that Democrats can afford to lose in 2020. And while in recent months the polls showed Biden with a commanding lead there, his internal polls must’ve signaled trouble ahead, which is now evident as his lead has completely evaporated.
According to the latest from Rasmussen Reports:
President Trump and Democratic nominee Joe Biden are running dead even in Pennsylvania.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone and online survey of Likely Voters in the Keystone State finds Trump and Biden with 46% support each. Four percent (4%) prefer some other candidate, and another four percent (4%) remain undecided. Among the 82% of voters who say they are certain now how they will vote in the presidential election, Trump holds a slight 51% to 49% advantage.
The president carries 86% of the Republican vote and leads among voters not affiliated with either major party by 11 points. Biden takes 81% of the Democrat vote. Worrisome for the former vice president is his 67% black support, low for a Democrat, with the incumbent earning 27% of the black vote in Pennsylvania. Trump leads among whites and other minority voters.
Of note, Rasmussen was among the closest mainstream pollster in approximating the popular vote in the 2016 election. Rasmussen had Hillary Clinton up 1.7 points over Trump on election day 2016, while she ended up winning the popular vote by 2.1 points above him (48.2% vs. 46.1%). The Real Clear Politics average of polls had Hillary up for six points (or phrased differently, one point for every grandchild that Biden has), meaning they understated Trump support by four percentage points on average in 2016.
The polls could be understating Trump’s true support by an even larger margin this election cycle.
According to Fox News:
Republican and independent voters are twice as likely to not reveal their true preference for president in a telephone poll, a study found.
CloudResearch, an online market research and data collection company, found that 11.7% of Republicans and 10.5% of independents said they wouldn’t share their true opinion, while only 5.4% of Democrats said the same. According to CloudResearch, some survey responders said they thought it would be “dangerous” to express an opinion outside the “current liberal viewpoint.”
In other words, there’s a 6.3 percentage point gap in the willingness for Republicans and Democrats to share their opinions, to the detriment of Trump’s support in the polls (but not in reality).