By 51-43 Margin, Majority Agree Trump Will Beat Biden

By 51-43 Margin, Majority Agree Trump Will Beat Biden

Joe Biden has taken the lead in the polls – but most voters either don’t believe that they’re accurate, or don’t believe that they’ll stay that way.

As the Washington Examiner’s Paul Bedard reports:

The latest 2020 Zogby Poll of 1,007 likely voters and shared with Secrets gave Trump a 51%-43% edge over Democrat Joe Biden. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1%.

Most polls show Biden beating Trump, though Zogby recently put the race as a dead heat, 46%-46%.

The new poll is different. Instead of asking for their preference, it asked which candidate do voters think will win regardless of their personal politics. Here, issues such as voter enthusiasm play a role. And the belief that Republicans are better for the economy — also tested in the survey — likely gave Trump a slight edge.

In his analysis, pollster Jonathan Zogby said that Trump remains very strong with his base. He is also winning middle age and older voters. And he’s crushing Biden among union workers.

Importantly, Trump is in a virtual tie with Biden among women, Hispanic, and suburban voters.

A number of recent headline-generating polls ought to have an asterick next to their results. Chief among them is the Quinnipiac Poll, which has Biden leading by 11 points in their most recent poll. However, Quinnipiac’s poll’s sample is +10 Democrat, meaning the two would be polling within the margin of error if their sample of Republican and Democrat voters reflected the nation.

Biden also suffers from the problem that nobody voting for him actually seems to want to vote for him. Just take a look at the gap in voters claiming to be “very enthusiastic” supporters of their candidate in past presidential elections:

• 2020 – Joe Biden: 29-point deficit against President Trump.
• 2016 – Hillary Clinton: 13-point deficit against Donald Trump.
• 2012 – Mitt Romney: 25-point deficit against President Obama.
• 2008 – John McCain: 33-point deficit against Barack Obama.
• 2004 – John Kerry: 16-point deficit against President George W. Bush.

In every case, the candidate with the more enthusiastic voter base has won. What’s the chance this election will be the exception?

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