The party of the president is always at a disadvantage heading into the midterms, and the unprecedentedly awful first nine months of the Biden presidency have complicated things further for Congressional Democrats.
Thus far Massachusetts Rep. Stephen Lynch has become the first Democrat to publicly acknowledge that he’s “nervous” about losing both the House and Senate in 2022 during a recent interview with WBZ (CBS Boston).
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Currently Democrats maintain a 220-212 majority in the House and an even 50-50 split in the Senate, which is effectively a 51-50 split.
House Democrats plan on targeting 22 districts in next year’s midterms, while the House GOP is targeting 47 “vulnerable” districts. Nineteen House members have announced that they won’t be running for re-election in 2022, four of which are Democrats in Republican leaning districts, and one of which is in a slightly (+0.3) Democrat leaning district. No Republicans retiring are in competitive districts.
The betting odds aggregated from ElectionBettingOdds.com show that people are giving the GOP an implied 72% chance of retaking the House in 2022, while the odds for either party taking a Senate majority is 55%, and has been trending upward since mid-August.
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