Democrat Operative in Deep Blue Miami-Dade County, FL: ‘We’ve Got to Stop the Bleeding’
A little trouble in paradise?
The significance of the early voting results in heavily Democratic Miami-Dade County, located in southeast Florida, cannot be overstated. According to data analyst Matthew Isbell, “Miami-Dade holds the futures of both parties in its hands, and right now the GOP leads in turnout.”
Isbell added that, “While Democrats need black voters to show up at this Sunday’s “souls to the polls” – Hispanic Democrats/NPAs [no party affiliation] also lag the GOP —- a dynamic that cost Gillum/Nelson.” Andrew Gillum was the state’s 2018 Democratic gubernatorial nominee who lost to Gov. Ron DeSantis after leading in the polls for much of the race. Then-Sen. Ben Nelson (D) also lost his 2018 re-election bid to former Florida Gov. Rick Scott (R), albeit by a very narrow margin.
Isbell reported that on Wednesday, the GOP held a 4.4 percent advantage over Democrats in early voting, which had grown to 6.8 percent by Thursday.
Btw, the 4.4% GOP advantage is now 6.8%
— 🦠Matthew Isbell🎃 (@mcimaps) October 29, 2020
Dan Bongino (who resides in Florida) was amazed by this developing situation and addressed it on his Wednesday podcast. He will be providing an update on today’s show.
“Something’s happening folks,” Dan told his viewers. “If Trump were to win Miami-Dade…that’s a moon shot, that’s a 1 percent chance. Do you understand it would be the equivalent of Trump winning California?”
“If you’re ignoring this, you’re an idiot.” He asks, “How the hell is the GOP ‘get out the vote’ machine turning out voters in Dade County at higher numbers than the Democrats?”
Dan presented a screenshot of 2016 election results which show Clinton (624,146 votes) defeating Trump (333,999) in the county. Even so, Trump managed to win the state.
“If Trump loses Florida, I’d be stunned…stunned,” he concludes.
(Relevant segment begins at 52:00.)
Politico reports that, “statewide, 7.4 million of Florida’s 14.4 million active registered voters had already cast ballots by Thursday morning: 41 percent from Democrats, 38 percent from Republicans and 22 percent from independents.”
We don’t know which candidate is ahead because the votes will not actually be tabulated until Election Day.
Joshua Geise, Florida director for America Votes, a Democratic get out the vote group, discussed the situation with Politico. Geise “acknowledged some of the turnout issues in Miami-Dade” and “said Democrats will make a huge push this weekend to halt the Republican gains in early voting.”
He said, “We’ve got to stop the bleeding.”
Politico spoke to a Democratic organizer in the state who “expressed concern that winning Florida looks more difficult by the day as Republicans turn out in big numbers and the pace of Democratic momentum in casting early ballots slows. It’s a sign the party is exhausting its high propensity voters — and the hard-to-motivate voters are tough to turn out.”
The organizer told Politico, “Look, our people hate Trump and they like Biden. But not enough of them love Biden.”
They also reached out to Oscar Braynon, a Florida state senator, for a comment. He noted that,”Biden isn’t doing as well as Clinton because the Clintons had a special bond with the region that was built over decades.”
Braynon said, “You have to remind people Biden was Obama’s vice president and have to tell people he has policies similar to those supported by Hillary and Obama. It’s important to emphasize it’s the same type of platform.”
Someone should tell him that might not be a good idea.
A new poll from the Trafalgar Group shows Trump ahead by 2.7 points in Florida. Trafalgar is most definitely a right-leaning pollster, however, they were among the most accurate in forecasting the results of the 2016 election.
FLORIDA: Trump +2.7 https://t.co/3XHh3IzTrq
— PollWatch (@PollWatch2020) October 30, 2020
The group’s chief pollster, Robert Cahaly, joined Fox News’ Laura Ingraham on Thursday night to discuss the state of the 2020 race. He believes Trump will win the state of Florida. Cahaly also sees a shift taking place among younger voters in many of the battleground states. More and more, they are turning to Trump because of his opposition to new COVID lockdowns. They see Biden as being too willing to close down the country, or regions of it, as the number of COVID cases increase.
Cahaly is an impressive man. In his recent Election Special, Dan interviewed Cahaly who provided some fascinating insight into the 2020 polls, particularly in the battleground states. He discusses why he believes his results were so accurate in 2016. I learned a lot and I highly recommend watching it. (The show opens with the Cahaly interview.)
Although it is impossible to predict who will ultimately win the state with certainty, the early voting data in Dade County certainly bodes well for Trump’s chances in the state. And the stamp of approval from Cahaly doesn’t hurt either.