Democrats Warm to “Nominee Cuomo”
Last week Tucker Carlson offered up a surprising take: that he doesn’t believe Joe Biden will be the Democrat Party’s nominee to face off against President Donald Trump. And it wasn’t because he was predicting an unlikely last-minute Sanders surge, either.
“Well, the math doesn’t work, but it’s not about math. It’s about will,” Tucker said on a podcast hosted by Charlie LeDuff. “So the Democratic Party is intent on taking power, period, period, and they mean it, and they’re willing to do kind of whatever they think works. I mean that’s demonstrable.”
While Cuomo is still a massive underdog (by a lot), it’s a remarkably fast change in the odds. As we reported earlier today, there isn’t much enthusiasm for Joe Biden – even among his supporters. While Hillary Clinton ran a 13-point enthusiasm deficit against Donald Trump, Biden’s is more than double that.
In turn, both Donald Trump and Joe Biden have drifted in the market, with Trump now a 1/1 (+100) favourite ahead of Biden at 11/8. (+138). The latest odds move means that Cuomo is now more likely than the likes of Bernie Sanders (33/1) and Mike Pence (50/1) with just over seven months to go until voting day.
According to Oddschecker spokesperson Pete Watt: “Just three days ago, bookmakers gave Cuomo a 0.4% chance (250/1) chance of winning the US election. Today, the best odds on the NYC Governor are 25/1, indicating his probability has increased by nearly tenfold to 3.85%. It is also worth noting that bettors are falling in line with the oddsmakers, with 61% of bets in the last 24 hours on this market going in favor of Andrew Cuomo.” Watt notes that Cuomo’s handling of the coronavirus is the likely reason for his ascension, though Trump does also boast net-approval on his handling of the issue. I think it’s more Cuomo’s response relative to Biden’s absence that’s responsible for the boost.
Even President Trump has weighed in on the matter earlier today, stating “I wouldn’t mind running against Andrew. I have known Andrew for a long time. I wouldn’t mind that. But I’ll be honest, I think he’d be a better candidate than Sleepy Joe.”
Of course, the more likely option would simply be for Biden to capitalize on Cuomo’s “rise” would be to reverse on his pledge to nominate a female VP and pick Cuomo instead.