Draft Kings Election Pool: A Majority in 49 States Predict a Trump Win
A Draft Kings election pool with over 370,000 participants predicted that Trump would win the election. A majority from every state other than Colorado thinks that Donald Trump will defeat Joe Biden.
🚨 DK Election Pool Alert: With over 350K entries, a majority of people in every state besides Colorado predict that @realdonaldtrump will be the winner of tomorrow’s election. pic.twitter.com/zUF0uZZtwK
— DraftKings (@DraftKings) November 2, 2020
For context, the above map is based on a free Draft Kings election pool where people have to guess every key state correctly to win a prize. What this map means is that people in every single state except Colorado, on average, chose an electoral map where Trump would be the winner. It does not mean that the majority of people in California believe that Trump will win California specifically, but the election overall. The distribution of bets for each state gamblers have to correctly guess are as follows:
- Who will win the election? Donald Trump 59%, Joe Biden 41%
- Who will win Florida? Donald Trump 74%, Joe Biden 26%
- Who will win Arizona? Donald Trump 60%, Joe Biden 40%
- Who will win Pennsylvania? Joe Biden 57%, Donald Trump 43%
- Who will win Michigan? Joe Biden 57%, Donald Trump 43%
- Who will win Wisconsin? Donald Trump 57%, Joe Biden 43%
- Who will win North Carolina? Donald Trump 64%, Joe Biden 36%
- Who will win New Jersey? Joe Biden 77%, Donald Trump 23%
- Who will win Colorado? Joe Biden 69%, Donald Trump 31%
- Who will win Indiana? Donald Trump 74%, Joe Biden 26%
- Who will win West Virginia? Donald Trump 79%, Joe Biden 21%
- Who will win Iowa? Donald Trump 68%, Joe Biden 32%
Their bets cuts against the conventional wisdom amongst many political professionals (and betting odds on other sites, where Biden is a 60/40 favorite) that Biden is well ahead and on track to win. So, what’s the disconnect?
As the Cook Political Report notes, the national polling wasn’t all that far off in 2016.
The RealClearPolitics average of polls on the morning of the election showed her 3.2 points ahead of Trump as the race continued to narrow. When the votes were tallied, Clinton’s national popular-vote edge was 2.1 percentage points (equal to about 2.9 million votes). There couldn’t have been too many Trump voters who lied or wouldn’t respond to pollsters for them to be that close.
The problem was in the state polls, which according to Five Thirty Eight were off by roughly five percentage points (understating Trump support by that amount) in 2016.
There are definitely some x-factors in Trump’s favor. For one, the enthusiasm level of Trump supporters seems to be orders of magnitude higher than what we’re seeing from Biden supporters. Additionally, polling consistently shows that Democrats are much more afraid of the Coronavirus than Republicans. Will that and a lack of enthusiasm lead to Democrats simply not showing up on election day to vote? Trump has also been running circles around Joe Biden on the campaign trail. He’s working his butt off while Biden seems to be limping his way to the finish. That may be having an impact because the final polling in some key battleground states does seem to show the numbers moving Trump’s way.
You also can’t forget that most political professionals counted Trump out in 2016 and he won. Did they blow it or was it just a statistical anomaly? If you roll a 6 sided die and Side A wins if they get 1-5 while Side B wins if they get a 6, obviously Side A has the better bet. But, Side B still has a 16.6% chance of winning. Side B even has a 2.7% chance of winning twice in a row despite the fact the odds are heavily in favor of Side A. So, were most of the political professionals missing something big in 2016 or did they make the smart call, but just had some bad luck? The general public, along with pollsters like Trafalgar that believe there are a lot of “shy” Trump voters seem to believe they blew it. We’re going to find out who was right about that soon. Let’s hope it’s the people that believe Trump is going to win it.