When Did You Change Your Mind? (Ep. 2574) - 08/14/2026
Grok: Explain the "Unbroken Leg" fallacy.
Thoughts >
The "Unbroken-Leg Fallacy" is an economic concept coined by Robert Higgs (in a 2014
Mises Institute article) as a counterpart to Frédéric Bastiat's well-known broken-window fallacy. mises.org
It criticizes a common presumption underlying many government interventions (both macroeconomic and microeconomic): that market participants are fully capable of acting more productively but fail to do so because of various "market failures," so the state must step in to fix the problem.
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Under current law, once the programs have exhausted their current trust funds, benefits would fall to match current revenue from the
payroll tax. That would require an estimated 22% cut in benefits overnight for retirees.
Should it happen, it would constitute what's known in technical political-science jargon as a "disaster" for anyone unfortunate
enough to be serving in Congress at the time.
Tell me about Norway's sovereign wealth fund.
It's enormous
At the end of 2025, the fund was worth NOK 21.268 trillion, roughly $2 trillion+, depending upon exchange rates. It is one of the largest investment funds on Earth.
• Norges Bank Investment Management +1
The scale becomes clearer when you look at its ownership:
Norway's fund owns nearly 1.5% of all publicly listed equities in the world.
It owns shares in roughly 7,200 companies.
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