FLASHBACK: Hillary Predicted Economic Armageddon If Trump Won Presidency

FLASHBACK: Hillary Predicted Economic Armageddon If Trump Won Presidency

Hillary Clinton is out of the woods once again to promote a new docuseries about herself on Hulu.

She admitted in an interview that she “feels the urge” to run for President in what I assume was a comment aimed at generating headlines to drive traffic to the series. After all, if she really wanted to run, the time to launch was long ago.

Nor is it clear why she believes anyone would want a Clinton presidency now. Even a visit to Wisconsin probably wouldn’t be enough to win anyone over.

Incumbent presidents always have an advantage – as do incumbent presidents with strong economies, like Trump.

Amusingly, Hillary predicted just the opposite would happen in the event of a Trump presidency while on the Trump campaign trail. Hillary told a crowd in Ohio in June of 2016 that “You might think that because he has spent his life as a businessman, he’d be better prepared to handle the economy. Well it turns out, he’s dangerous there, too.” She cited a report released by Moody’s Analytics claiming that if Trump’s economic policies were enacted, it would lead to a loss of 3.5 million jobs, and trigger a “lengthy” recession.

She repeated a similar line during the first presidential debate, stating that “Independent experts have looked at what I’ve proposed and looked at what Donald’s proposed, and basically they’ve said this, that if his tax plan…were to go into effect, we would lose 3.5 million jobs and maybe have another recession. They’ve looked at my plans and they’ve said…we will have 10 million more new jobs.”

And those predictions aged poorly.

In reality, Trump set a number of economic records during his presidency.

At 3.5% as of December, it’s often reported that unemployment is at the lowest level since the end of WWII, but things are actually better than that. While it is true that the unemployment rate was below 2% from 1943-1945, that’s a historic anomaly caused by a nation at war. The last time the unemployment rate was below 3.5% was in 1929. The average unemployment was under Trump has been lower than under any other president.

There were 145.7 million people employed the month Trump was inaugurated, compared to 152.4 million today, for an increase of 6.7 million jobs. Or put in other words, Hillary was off by a margin of 10.2 million jobs. Moody’s forecasts also predicted that without any changes to policies, it wouldn’t be until 2022 that the economy added six million jobs (since 2017), meaning that the Trump economy in terms of total employment is performing two-years ahead of if his policies were not in effect.

There are also now more job openings than there are people looking for work.

And most new jobs are coming from outside of the labor force. According to HiringLabWorkers who are outside the labor force have been the majority of people moving into jobs since the Bureau of Labor Statistics began tracking these flows. For example, recent graduates entering the job market and caretakers returning to paid work skip unemployment and move right into employment. What’s notable is how high this share of flows into employment has gotten. At the peaks of the economic expansions in 2000 and 2007, the share of flows into employment from outside the labor force only briefly got close to 70%. As of November 2019, it has moved all the way up to 74.3%. 

Think any of this would’ve happened with a Hillary Clinton presidency? I doubt most voters do.

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