Frank Luntz: The Polling Profession Is Done
Last night, GOP Pollster Frank Luntz told Axios that “the polling profession is done” after blowing another big election.
“The political polling profession is done” Luntz told Axios this morning. “It is devastating for my industry.”
Last month, Luntz warned that his profession absolutely had to get this election right.
“Well, I hate to acknowledge it, because that’s my industry — at least partially — but the public will have no faith. No confidence. Right now, the biggest issue is the trust deficit. And pollsters did not do a good job in 2016. So if Donald Trump surprises people, if Joe Biden had a 5- or 6-point lead, my profession is done.”
Although we don’t know the final outcome of the election, it’s pretty clear the polling was off this time around. So, does that mean polling is going away? No chance.
What you may see, however, is that more pollsters start using “social circle” questions. In other words, they won’t just ask who you’re voting for, they’ll ask who you think your friends and family will be voting for as well. These questions have proven to be useful in spotting “shy” voters that aren’t telling pollsters the truth. They’re also why the polling company Trafalgar was able to correctly predict the 2016 election and was much more bullish on Trump than other pollsters this time around. In fact, their lead pollster Robert Cahaly predicted that Trump would win a close election this time around. Will he turn out to be right? Well, we don’t know for sure, but it certainly still seems possible and Trafalgar again appears to be one of the better pollsters this time around. Maybe some of these pollsters that blew the election AGAIN should learn from what they’re doing.