Here’s Why I’m Convinced the Polls Are Wrong – Even More So Than Four Years Ago
What would explain the massive disconnect between the current polls and what we’re seeing on the ground?
Yes, the polls have tightened a bit as the election draws nearer, but not to the same degree they had at this same point in 2016. Five days out, despite former Vice President Joe Biden’s obvious cognitive decline, revelations that he’s lied to the American people about knowledge of his son’s overseas business dealings and a credible witness who has gone on the record to dispute him, he has maintained a formidable lead. The RealClearPolitics average of national polls stands at 7.7 percent, compared to 3.3 percent (average of nine polls reported between November 1 and 3, 2016) five days prior to the 2016 election.
What’s happening? Are pollsters getting the results they “want” by oversampling Democrats? Are they trying to demoralize Trump supporters by minimizing his chances, thus, discouraging them from bothering to vote?
Maybe. But the biggest reason for the Biden friendly poll results goes well beyond that.
After Trump’s upset victory over Clinton, we first heard politicos talk about the “shy Trump voter.” People were uncomfortable or embarrassed to tell pollsters they planned to vote for Trump.
The shy Trump voter of 2016 has become the angry, “none of your d**n business” voter of 2020. The deceitful actions of the Democratic Party over the past four years have struck a nerve with many voters. The Democrats’ un-American, unjust and even unlawful path has stunned and even triggered outrage among large swaths of the electorate. The ranks of these voters has likely multiplied with each new injustice and their effect will be far more powerful than it was in 2016.
Let’s think about what’s happened in American politics over the last four years.
Democrats hated Donald Trump and went to great lengths to derail his campaign.
With the approval of the sitting president, top administration officials weaponized U.S. intelligence agencies against him. Hillary Clinton and the DNC, which she essentially controlled after bailing them out financially, commissioned and paid for a former British intelligence official to fabricate a fake Trump dossier which they used as the basis for a FISA warrant to spy on his campaign. They continued to use this document to prosecute him for (over) the first two years of his presidency.
Trump supporters were shamed by politicos eager to keep them from pulling the lever for the uncouth outsider. Clinton herself famously called us deplorables. At the time of the election, none of the Democrats’ unprecedented and malicious dirty tricks were known to the public.
When the unthinkable happened and Trump won the presidency, their prior deeds paled in comparison to their post-election efforts to both cover their tracks and force him out of office.
They appointed a Special Counsel to investigate the President for charges they knew were false and staffed it with the most rabid anti-Trumpers in Washington. They made sure the investigation continued to cast a dark shadow over Trump’s presidency throughout the midterms even though the dossier had been totally discredited in the spring of 2017. We’ll never know the damage caused by that investigation. It’s entirely possible that Republicans may have held onto their House majority had it not been for the Mueller probe.
Months after that gambit failed, the House of Representatives impeached the President over accusations which were even more bogus.
Thanks to the hard work of so many patriots, especially Rep. Devin Nunes (R-CA), investigative reporter John Solomon and our own Dan Bongino, their corruption was exposed. Although Democrats have refused to take responsibility, and it sure would have been helpful if U.S. Attorney John Durham had completed and released his report prior to the election, many Americans are aware of their malfeasance.
Over the past year, the divide between the two political parties became more bitter than ever. Democrats have attacked Trump over his handling of the coronavirus and regularly blame him for over 220,000 American deaths. And when we thought the rancor had reached its peak, the death of George Floyd while in police custody at the end of May triggered a series of riots which quickly spread throughout the country. Few Democrats, if any, denounced the violence. We deserved it, they said, because of America’s systemic racism.
As we fast forward to today, we watch the mainstream media ignore the Hunter Biden Laptop story. And the three largest social media companies have initiated a campaign to prevent this story from being reported to the public. After all, they’re so close to dragging their ailing, corrupt candidate over the finish line. Once they do that, who knows, they’ll either use Biden’s cognitive decline or else take a sudden interest in the laptop story they’re now suppressing to clear the decks for their liberal princess, Kamala Harris, who could never have captured the nomination on her own.
Democratic politicians and the activist media have beclowned themselves over the last four years. And the American people have been watching.
We need only look at the makeup of the attendees at Trump’s rallies – in blue states – to see that they’ve even alienated some members of their own party.
Prior to the arrival of COVID on our shores, then-Trump campaign manager Brad Parscale regularly reported post-rally statistics. His data was provided to the Trump campaign from attendees. I often posted those numbers. The average portion of Democrats at any given rally fluctuated between 20 and 25 percent. The average percentage of voters who had not voted in at least the previous election typically fell between 20 and 25 as well.
The fact that Trump is drawing Democrats and other non-Republicans to his rallies is remarkable and speaks volumes.
Americans are once again flocking to Trump rallies in huge numbers. My colleague, Matt Palumbo, reported (here) the statistics from Trump’s rally in Arizona on Wednesday. He also provides some historical data.
In the tweet below, RNC Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel presents statistics from a rally held in Duluth, Minnesota in early October.
Our data from the Duluth Rally shows @realDonaldTrump is still bringing in tons of new voters:
60% of attendees were NOT Republican
20.9% were Democrat
17.2% did not vote in 2016
8.4% have not voted in last 4 elections
Thank you, Minnesota!
— Ronna McDaniel (@GOPChairwoman) October 1, 2020
And here are the statistics from a recent rally in Sanford, Florida.
Fantastic data from @realDonaldTrump’s rally in Sanford:
✅ 15,852 voters identified
✅ 31.8% were NOT Republicans
✅ 16.3% were Democrat
✅ 24.4% did not vote in 2016
✅ 14.4% did not vote in the last 4 elections
Thank you, Florida!
— Ronna McDaniel (@GOPChairwoman) October 13, 2020
The President’s supporters love him. How many times have we heard attendees at any political rally break into chants of “we love you?” This happens routinely at Trump rallies.
The enthusiasm gap between Trump and Biden has been running at around 20 points.
Trump supporters don’t want to waste their time on the phone with a pollster. Nor do they want to open themselves up to reprisal.
But they’re out there. They are attending rallies, participating in boat parades and car parades. They are patriots.
Democrats have assumed too much; they’ve gone too far. They may be surprised to find that, outside of their own liberal base, many voters oppose their plans to turn America into a socialist country.
I am convinced that the number of “silent Trump voters” from 2016 has multiplied and that their feelings have intensified.
Don’t believe the polls.