Ohio has a reputation for being the nation’s ultimate bellwether state in presidential elections. The presidential candidate that has won Ohio in every election since 1964 has also won the presidency. With Ohio, so goes the nation.

A poll conducted near the end of last year found President Donald Trump beating every single major 2020 Democrat candidate in Ohio, with Joe Biden trailing by four points, and Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren trailing by seven. Pete Buttigieg polled best, lagging Trump by only a single point, but he’s unlikely to win the nomination.

That’s a good omen – as is how the voters in the biggest swing county in the swing state of Iowa plan on voting.

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According to the Wall Street Journal: The rural Howard County, located in northeast Iowa near the Minnesota border, is the only one of America’s more than 3,000 counties that voted by more than 20 percentage points for Mr. Obama in 2012 and by more than 20 percentage points for Mr. Trump in 2016. It swung 41 points, the second-biggest flip in the nation.

As for Mr. Trump’s impeachment trial, now under way in the Senate, most voters said they haven’t followed the case closely and don’t expect it to weigh heavily in their decisions. Several said they view it as just more Washington partisanship.

Recent interviews with dozens of voters here suggest that most of Mr. Trump’s 2016 supporters plan to stick with him. 

Howard County isn’t an overtly partisan place. Almost half of its voters—46.8%—are registered as independents, high enough to rank fourth among Iowa’s 99 counties. The president won in 2016 partly because he ran up huge victories in small, heavily rural counties. While he is likely to win such areas again, margins could matter. 

President Trump has been attracting a large number of Independents and Democrats to his recent rallies in key swing states.  At Trump’s recent rally in Ohio 42.8% of the attendees were either Democrats (21.9%) or Independents (20.9%). At his Wisconsin rally, Republicans were a minority with 57% identifying as Democrats or Independents.

Meanwhile, what Republicans are showing up to the rallies of Joe Biden or Bernie Sanders?

None.