It’s now evident that the media’s predictions about the “inevitabilities” of the 2020 election are just as misinformed as they were in 2016.
For as much as Joe Biden has written off his losses in Iowa and New Hampshire as non-representative of what’s to come in future states, Biden has in-fact crashed in the polls, giving up the lead that he maintained for the entirety of the primary race.
According to RealClearPolitics, which averages together national polls on the primary, Bernie Sanders now has a 4.4 point lead against the other candidates as the new frontrunner. Biden once enjoyed over a 10 point lead at his peak – which you can see fell of a cliff:
In this case, the bookies were a few days ahead of the polls. As I reported earlier in the week based on the odds aggregator Oddschecker, Sanders is the projected winner in all but four states’ primaries where there are currently betting markets for, and bettors have him as the favorite to become the nominee.
Interestingly Michael Bloomberg has attracted the second largest number of bets. While Bloomberg has been absent from the debate stage, he’s been running a parallel campaign to the rest of the herd, concentrating his hundreds of millions in campaign spending into select delegate rich states. He’s since risen to third place as Elizabeth Warren also fell in the polls again following her New Hampshire defeat.
Three candidates dropped out of the race following New Hampshire – Andrew Yang, Michael Bennet, and Duval Patrick. “Other” received more votes than the latter two. By the looks of it, Warren could be the next one out unless she can stop the bleeding in her poll numbers.