There’s a real chance that the “No Labels” third party could split the vote in the 2024 election, and it would likely disproportionately siphon off Joe Biden’s share. The Democratic Party has already taken some steps to thwart the party running a candidate, with the Arizona branch of the party suing to block No Labels from the ballot.
Democrat Senator Joe Manchin is at the top of the No Labels party’s list of potential 2024 candidates, and he’s not ruling out the possibility. When grilled by Fox’s Shannon Bream about running, he left the door open.
“No Labels has been moving and pushing very hard to the centrist middle. Making commonsense decisions,” Manchin said, dodging a question about whether or not a third-party run is “still in the realm of possibility for him.” “People that basically expect us to do our job. And not put the political party ahead of the policy in our great country. That’s what we’ve seen happening. And there’s more noise and more extremism coming from the far left and the far right.”
As he continued speaking about the need for centrism, Bream interjected "But is there a risk management team assessing a third-party run for Sen. Joe Manchin with No Labels or any other option?"
Manchin replied that “"I think with a risk management team, you better have Plan B. Because if Plan A shows that we’re going to the far reaches of both sides,” and when asked if that possibility included him, he replied “I’m not saying who it’s going to include or exclude. I’m saying you better have Plan B ready.”
No Labels describes itself as an organization that supports “centrism and bipartisanship,” and notably began holding meetings in early 2014 that would later turn into the Problem Solvers Caucus, of which 61 members of the House of Representatives are part of (of which 32 are Democrats and 31 Republicans). In addition to Manchin, former Maryland Governor Larry Hogan has also been pitched as a potential candidate for the party.
There’s no polling on how a No Labels run could split the vote yet, but one of his long-shot challengers within the Democratic Primary, Robert F. Kennedy Jr, is garnering support from 14% of Biden’s 2020 voters in the polls. The 1996 presidential election was the most recent election where a third party significantly split the vote, with the Reform Party’s Ross Perot taking in 8.4%, which is widely credited with handing the election to Bill Clinton.Matt Palumbo is the author of Fact-Checking the Fact-Checkers: How the Left Hijacked and Weaponized the Fact-Checking Industry and The Man Behind the Curtain: Inside the Secret Network of George Soros
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