In a blow to Democrats’ egos, the famous Moody’s report tweeted today that “Our 2020 Presidential Election Models: Early signs point to Trump, though turnout is key.”
— MoodysAnalytics ECON (@economics_ma) October 15, 2019
Much of the report credits his reelection potential to economic wins. The report says, “The current environment of stable to low gas prices favors Trump in his reelection bid. Moreover, the baseline forecast calls for gasoline prices to dip slightly in the year leading up to the 2020 election.”
The most explosive piece of information is that “if voters were to vote primarily on the basis of their pocketbooks, the president would steamroll the competition, taking home 351 electors votes to the Democrats’ 187, assuming average voter turnout.”
The catch? Voters have to actually vote. “The report claims that if turnout among Democrats and independents match their maximum historical highs, Trump would lose in a tight race.” The report says:
“An average of the three sets of model results suggests that if turnout of nonincumbent voters in 2020 matches the historical high across states, then Democrats would win a squeaker with 279 electoral votes to the president’s 259.”
Although they incorrectly predicted a victory by Hillary Clinton in 2016, they said they have corrected their model.
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