Yesterday we learned how the 2020 Census would affect the composition of the House of Representatives.
Texas picked up two seats, while Florida, Colorado, Montana, North Carolina, and Oregon picked up one. California, Illinois, Michigan, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia all lost one each. Overall, states that voted for Biden lost a net three seats.
The shifting of seven seats among thirteen states represents the smallest number of seats changing hands in any decade since the current method of apportionment was adopted in 1941.
Hilariously, New York wouldn’t have lost a seat if their population of 20,201,249 was a mere 89 people higher. As Fox reported:
According to the Census Bureau, the Empire State would not have lost a House seat if it had counted just 89 more people.
Due to the decrease in the state’s population over the past decade, New York’s delegation in the House will edge down from 27 to 26 seats, a sign of diminishing clout on the federal level for a state that held 45 House seats from 1933-1953 and retained the largest state delegation in the chamber until 1973.
The latest 2020 Census figures continue a decades old trend of a net shift of population – and House seats – from the Northeast and the Midwest to the South and West.
So, New York missed keeping a seat by a 0.0004% margin.
Or in other words, if Cuomo’s disastrous nursing home policy killed a mere 89 fewer people – or if his high taxes caused 89 fewer people to move out of the state, his state could’ve retained that seat.
While only three net seats will change hands in the GOP’s favor here, the balance of power is already closer than it appears.
Republicans have 212 seats in the House to the Democrats 218. While this is a Democrat majority by six seats, because tie votes fail in the House, it reduces the Democrat majority to two votes (as losing three votes on a bill would lead to a 215-215 tie), and effectively blocks them from passing any of their most progressive legislation.
The betting odds aggregated from ElectionBettingOdds.com show that people are giving the GOP an implied 66% chance of retaking the House in 2022, while the odds for either party taking a Senate majority are effectively a coin flip.
Matt Palumbo is the author of Dumb and Dumber: How Cuomo and de Blasio Ruined New York, Debunk This: Shattering Liberal Lies, and Spygate
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