New York Set to Lose Even More Residents

New York Set to Lose Even More Residents
(Photo by Mario Tama/Getty Images)

The number of citizens leaving New York is at its highest rate since NYC’s pre-Giuliani crime wave.  From 2010 to 2017, New York lost 1,022,071 residents, a negative 5.27% change in internal migration. Total population grew only 0.4% from 2010-2019, a time when the national population grew 16%.

NYC’s population is beginning to drop for the first time in a decade. From 2017-2018 it fell 0.47%, which may appear minor, but was the largest drop in any metro area during that period. While the population was projected to grow by 7,000, it actually declined by 38,000. The exodus accelerated from 2018-2019, with the city losing over 53,000 people.

During the early months of the pandemic nearly half a million people left the city, though we won’t know for some time how many left for good for some time. Even immigrants are avoiding the city – international immigration fell nearly in half since its peak in 2016 (far out of proportion with the decline in legal immigration under President Trump). By 2019 NYC’s population was only 2% larger than it was in 2010, again, a time period where the population grew 16% nationally.

Florida is the #1 destination for those leaving New York, a state that couldn’t possibly contrast with more in terms of government’s size and scope. Taxes in Florida are drastically lower than in New York, as is the cost of living. This is vindication that Florida’s system of government is preferable to New York’s, but also could lead to political consequences if New Yorkers are bringing their politics with them.

And now with more tax hikes on the horizon, even more of New York’s wealthiest are looking for the exit. As CNBC reports:

New York’s top business leaders are gearing up for a potential mass exodus as Gov. Andrew Cuomo and state lawmakers prepare to raise their taxes.

Wealthy business leaders who have historically resisted moving at least some of their resources to Florida or other less-taxed states explained to CNBC that they are now seriously reconsidering as working from home becomes the norm, allowing more flexibility.

Florida does not tax personal income. Miami Mayor Francis Suarez told CNBC that he has been in touch with some of New York’s biggest firms, including since details of the tax hikes were announced this week.

“We have been,” Suarez said when asked if he’s heard from New York-based business executives in recent days. “I can’t give names but if you’re looking to know if we’re talking to the biggest firms in New York, we are.”

New York is set to hike their top tax rate for single filers who earn over $1 million from 8.82% to 9.65%. Those who earn between $5-25 million will be taxed at 10.3%, and those earnings above $25 million will be taxed at 10.9%. While these are tax increases on the wealthy, the exodus it will spark will increase the need for taxes on everyone else down the road amid a shrinking tax base.

Matt Palumbo is the author of Dumb and Dumber: How Cuomo and de Blasio Ruined New YorkDebunk This: Shattering Liberal Lies, and Spygate


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