Now Nearly One in Four Bernie Supporters Won’t Back Biden
Back in March the Biden campaign got some bad news – that he wouldn’t converting all of Bernie Sanders’ supporters into Biden voters. At the time, “An ABC News/Washington Post opinion poll [found that] a full 15 percent of Bernie Sanders supporters plan to cast their vote for President Donald Trump’s reelection. ”
And now, with sexual assault allegations levied against him, the percentage of Bernie supporters abandoning Biden has gone up even further.
According to USA Today:
Nearly 1 in 4 Sanders supporters (22%) said they would vote for a third party candidate, vote for President Donald Trump, not vote in November or were undecided about who to vote for, according to a USA TODAY/Suffolk Poll.
While the percentage of Bernie supporters who say they won’t vote for Biden has notably increased from the March ABC poll (at 15% defecting to Trump) to this USA Today poll (with 22% defecting), the polls differ in how defectors plan to vote. When broken down in the USA Today poll, “2% said they would vote for Trump, 8% said they would vote for a third party candidate, 2% said they would skip voting and 8% are still undecided.”
That seems impossibly low, considering that we know 12% of Bernie supporters defected for Trump over Hillary Clinton in 2016.
Regardless, any vote not going towards Biden is still a net positive for Trump, even if it goes to a third party. Overall, 77% of Sanders supporters do plan on voting for Biden.
Admittedly I’m surprised that only 2% of Sanders supporters don’t plan on voting at all. That said, Biden still suffers a massive enthusiasm gap with President Trump.
According to the Washington Examiner’s Paul Bedard, who is quoting the latest data from Emerson College Polling:
Democrat appear to be throwing in the towel. While Biden leads President Trump in a head-to-head matchup, 48%-42%, when voters overall were asked who they really think will win in November, it’s a Trump blowout, 57%-43%.
Emerson found that Trump has a sizable 19-point advantage in the enthusiasm gap, 64%-45%. Some 36% of his supporters said they are “extremely excited” to vote for Trump, and 28% said they are “very excited.” For Biden, those numbers are 22% and 23%.
As I noted elsewhere, the leader in enthusiasm has won every election since at least 2004.
• 2016 – Hillary Clinton: 13-point deficit against Donald Trump.
• 2012 – Mitt Romney: 25-point deficit against President Obama.
• 2008 – John McCain: 33-point deficit against Barack Obama.
• 2004 – John Kerry: 16-point deficit against President George W. Bush.
And there’s no reason to believe things will be different this time around.