President Trump is currently on his way to a landslide victory in 2020, according to a Politico report which points to economic models with a history of correctly predicting winning presidential candidates.
According to the report, a strong economy with low unemployment, rising wages and low gas prices–coupled with the advantages of an incumbent president–will cruise Trump into his second term.
Chief investment officer of research firm TrendMacrolytics, Donald Luskin told Politico,“The economy is just so damn strong right now and by all historic precedent the incumbent should run away with it. I just don’t see how the blue wall could resist all that.” TrendMacrolytics’ model accurately predicted Trump’s 2016 win.
Politico reports:
Yale economist Ray Fair, who pioneered this kind of modeling, also shows Trump winning by a fair margin in 2020 based on the economy and the advantage of incumbency.
“Even if you have a mediocre but not great economy — and that’s more or less consensus for between now and the election — that has a Trump victory and by a not-trivial margin,” winning 54 percent of the popular vote to 46 for the Democrat, he said. Fair’s model also predicted a Trump win in 2016 though it missed on Trump’s share of the popular vote.
For the full report, click HERE.
