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Republicans Have Record Advantage in First Congressional Poll Since Roe Leak

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Republicans have opened up an even larger lead in the congressional generic ballot since Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito’s  draft decision overturning Roe v. Wade was leaked to the press.

From the Washington Examiner:

Since the May 2 leak of Justice Alito’s draft decision overturning Roe, there has been exactly one poll taken on the congressional generic ballot question — the one that asks voters which party’s candidate they intend to support this November. CNN had actually polled this question in the three days immediately before the leak and found Republicans with a 1-point advantage. But when CNN polled again after the leak, between May 3 and May 5, Republicans suddenly had a 7-point advantage — the largest GOP advantage in the history of CNN’s generic ballot poll.

Some have speculated that a decision to overturn Roe could energize a Democratic base that has all but accepted defeat in this year’s midterm elections, giving activists an issue to rally around and push voters to the polls.

“People are tired, but they’re more outraged than they are tired, Rosemary Dixon, who head a progressive advocacy group in Arizona, told Time last week. “It’s a horrible thing to say, but in a way, it’s a gift to progressive organizers.”

But other observers aren’t so sure an overturn of Roe would be the political windfall Democrats are hoping for, with the Washington Post noting last week that while polling shows Americans don’t want to overturn Roe, that’s mostly because most Americans don’t know what such a decision would look like:

2019 study reported that 65.7 percent of Americans incorrectly believe that if Roe were overturned, abortion would be illegal everywhere in the United States. It would not.

But a Fox News poll released this week finds most Americans agree with the Mississippi abortion law at the heart of the Supreme Court case. The survey found that 54 percent favor state laws banning abortion after 15 weeks of pregnancy, except in the case of a medical emergency — exactly what the Mississippi law does — while just 41 percent oppose such a law.
Meanwhile, some Republican strategists believe that an overturn of Roe is unlikely to move the needle towards Democrats with Americans focused on other issues.
“Could be wrong, but I’d predict that all those issues that have 60% of Americans [feeling] we are on the wrong track (high inflation, rising crime, the border, etc.) will play a bigger role in the elections [than] a Supreme Court decision on Roe,” GOP strategist Doug Heye said last week.
Photos by Getty Images

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