Republicans Won Every “Toss-Up” House Race – And More
That the polls were wrong in 2016 presidential election is no secret. That they were even more wrong in 2020 is a fact pollsters would rather ignore.
While the national polls for the presidential race are basically irrelevant due to the electoral college, they too were more inaccurate than in 2016. In 2016 the RealClearPolitics average had Hillary Clinton ahead by 3.2 points while she won the popular vote by 2.1. This cycle the polls had Biden leading Trump by 7.2 points (51.2% to 44%). Without taking into account the results of any lawsuits or recounts, Biden is leading 51% to 47.2% as of writing, for a 3.8 point lead, and margin of error of 3.4 points, more than three times as large as in 2016.
It wasn’t just the presidential race either. Not a single poll predicted that Susan Collins, who won her race, would win her race. Quinnipiac predicted that Collins would lose by 12 points, when she actually won by 8.8, for an incredible 20.8 point margin of error.
According to the Washington Examiner’s Michael Lee (my friend – not the Senator):
Republicans won all 27 House races the Cook Political Report rated as “toss-ups” in its 2020 election analysis, in addition to picking up seven of the 36 seats the outlet rated as “likely Democrat” or “lean Democrat.”
“The House count stands at 221D-209R, and here are my information ratings of the five outstanding races following today’s developments,” Cook Political Report editor Dave Wasserman said on Twitter. “#CA21 – Likely R, #CA25 – Lean R, #IA02 – Lean R (recount), #NJ07 – Likely D, #NY22 – Toss Up.”
The House count stands at 221D-209R, and here are my informal ratings of the five outstanding races following today’s developments:#CA21 – Likely R#CA25 – Lean R#IA02 – Lean R (recount)#NJ07 – Likely D#NY22 – Toss Up
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 18, 2020
Before the election, the Cook Political Report listed 229 seats as either “solid Democrat,” “likely Democrat,” or “lean Democrat” to go along with the 26 toss-ups. As of Thursday, the party’s best hope is for 226 seats, though the Cook Political Report rates 223 as the most likely outcome.
When the dust settled, Democrats did not flip a single state legislative chamber, while Republicans surprisingly flipped both the Senate and the House in New Hampshire.