Sorry Liberals, But Trump Still Has a Very Clear Path to 270
The left has tried to convince Americans for four years that President Trump is evil, unhinged, rude, crude and unfit for the presidency. They have tried to destroy him over and over again, but every time they think they’ve got him, he slips out of their grasp. This year, Democrats have weaponized the pandemic, the lockdowns and the deep economic recession against him. Yet, despite their perpetual pursuit, it remains entirely possible that he may win a second term. The President has a very clear and achievable path to victory.
Trump starts off with the following reliably red states: Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arkansas (6), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (8), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Mississippi (6), Missouri (10), Montana (3), Nebraska (4), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (9), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Utah (6), West Virginia (5), Wyoming (3). These states contribute 125 electoral votes to the Trump column.
We’ll add Florida (29) to the list. On Friday, I reported that the number of Republicans who have cast early votes in Miami-Dade County, the bluest county in the state, had topped 6.4 percent. As of Saturday, that figure had surpassed 9 percent leading one Democratic operative to say, “We’ve got to stop the bleeding.” In 2016, Trump trailed Hillary Clinton by 300,000 votes in this county and still defeated her in the state.
We can add Georgia (16) to the list as well.
Arizona (11) belongs on this list. Trump is drawing a larger share of the Latino vote (in addition to the black vote) in 2020 than he did in 2016. The Washington Post published a lengthy piece in September which featured a group of small business owners in the Copper State who support President Trump. They’re happy with his administration’s tax cuts, deregulation and pro-life platform. They also resent the Democrats’ obsession with identity politics.
One resident, a business owner, told the Post, “It infuriates me that the government puts me in a box and calls me a Latino or a Hispanic or minority female. It doesn’t work for me, because I am no different than other Americans in terms of the things that interest me: to be able to put food on my table, to have a job.”
She added, “Most Latinos here, we are all in the same boat, especially the ones coming from Mexico like me. We are luchadores, entrepreneurs, we fight for what we want. We just want to be left alone, and the government to let markets flow.”
As for Texas (38) turning blue, that doesn’t seem to be in the cards. Forbes Magazine reports a divergence between the polls and the breakdown by party affiliation of early voters. This is similar to what’s been happening in Dade County, Florida. According to Forbes:
As of Oct. 29, NBC News has analyzed Texas’ early and by mail voting through Oct. 26, finding that 54% of those voting early are Republican vs. 36% Democrat and 10% other or unknown. This gives the Republicans up to an 18% lead in early voting in Texas, or 8% if all the unknown and first-time voters are assigned to the Democrats.
Trump was projected to win Ohio (18) by 3.5 percent in 2016. He won the state by an 8.1 percent margin. The current Real Clear Politics average of the polls in the state shows a tie. Trump leads by 4 in the most recent Trafalgar Group poll and by 3 in the latest Fox News survey. And we all know that Fox polling hasn’t been kind to the President this year. Neither poll incorporates the impact of Biden’s monumental gaffe during the final debate when he said he planned to “transition” the U.S. out of fossil fuels by 2035.
Even the left-leaning polling group Quinnipiac, whose results are very often the outlier, has Trump up by a point in the state of Iowa (6). The final RCP average in 2016 showed Trump ahead by 3 points and he wound up winning the state by a 9.5 percent margin.
The influential Des Moines Register has endorsed Biden, just as they endorsed Clinton in 2016.
Maine and Nebraska are the only two states to split up their electoral votes. Trump is expected to win at least four of Nebraska’s five electoral votes. He may even win one of Maine’s electoral votes.
The addition of these states brings Trump’s total to 247 electoral votes, leaving him just 23 electoral votes away from the presidency.
There are a number of ways he can fill this gap. Various combinations of the following states could easily put him up and over this threshold.
Trump stands a good chance of winning North Carolina (15). Just ahead of the 2016 election, the RCP polling average showed him with a one point advantage over Clinton. He won the state by 3.7 points.
Trump is currently trailing Biden by 1.2 percent, however Trafalgar shows Trump ahead by 3 and Rasmussen shows him up by one. Two other polls, neither of which are right leaning, predict a tie. I believe Trump has a good chance to carry North Carolina again.
Pennsylvania (20) could go either way. Trump has campaigned very aggressively in the state. In fact, his campaign held four rallies in Pennsylvania on Saturday.
Biden’s tone deaf remark about the oil industry during the debate will no doubt hurt him with voters in this state as well.
Last Saturday, Dan Bongino aired a Special Election podcast in which he interviewed Trafalgar’s Robert Cahaly (referenced above).
Cahaly told Dan that, although he thought Trump would actually receive more votes in Pennsylvania than Biden, he didn’t believe his margin would be sufficient to overcome the voter fraud which the state has become notorious for.
Earlier last week (October 20), Cahaly told Fox News’ Sean Hannity Trump would have to win the state by a four to five point margin to make up for this fraud.
Both Dan’s and Sean Hannity’s interviews with Cahaly occurred before the final debate meaning that Biden’s unfortunate remark had not been factored into their conversations.
Frankly, I think Trump stands a good chance of winning Pennsylvania.
Lord knows the President has put a lot of time into winning Michigan (10). He has three more rallies planned in the state on Sunday and Monday. President Obama campaigned with Biden in Michigan on Saturday.
Trump won Michigan in 2016 by a razor sharp margin despite Clinton’s 6.4 percent lead. Biden is currently ahead by 6.5 points.
Some analysts believe Trump has a chance to flip Minnesota this year. The last Republican to win this state was President Nixon in 1972. Trump came within 1.5 percent, or 45,000 votes, of victory in 2016. Clinton had been ahead by 6.2 percent prior to Election Day. Trump currently trails Biden by 4.7 percent.
Minneapolis, you may recall, was ground zero for the riots and the violence which rocked the U.S. this summer. Their City Council was the first to call for the defunding of police. Minnesotans, one would think, may have grown a bit tired of liberal governance after witnessing the destruction of their capital city.
Additionally, Trump enjoys tremendous support in the “Iron Range,” a region located in the northern part of Minnesota. This is a “mostly rural region bordering Lake Superior where massive iron mines serve as the region’s economic backbone and fuel much of the country’s steel production. It was a Trump stronghold in 2016, and it has benefited from his trade policy. One of the only U.S. House seats to flip from Democratic to Republican control in 2018 was the district that includes the Iron Range.”
There is a chance that Wisconsin (10) could go red as it did in 2016. Although a recent ABC/Washington Post poll showing Biden up by 17 percent in Wisconsin is ludicrous, a GOP win in the state will be an uphill battle. Still, the President has actively campaigned there and has generated tremendous enthusiasm among voters. The RCP average of polls just prior to the 2016 election showed Hillary Clinton with a 6.5 point lead. She ultimately lost to Trump by 0.7 percent. Currently, Biden prevails by 6.4 points.
Stripping the ridiculous ABC/WaPo poll out of the average, Biden’s lead would decrease to 4.7 percent. A recent Trafalgar poll showed Biden up by only a point. Cahaly is less enthusiastic about Trump’s chances in Wisconsin than he is about other rust belt states such as Michigan and Minnesota.
Nevada (6), a state that went for Clinton in 2016, will likely go to Biden. It’s possible, but not likely, that casino workers, concerned that Biden will shut them down if Covid were to resurge, could flip the state to Trump.
Trump has been campaigning tirelessly since his recovery from Covid which has created tremendous momentum. This, combined with credible and well-documented allegations that Biden was not only aware of his son’s overseas business adventures, but may have been a participant, has laid waste to the canard that a Democratic victory is inevitable.
Moreover, midwesterners, whose votes could well decide the election, may not be on board with the Party’s sharp left turn.
Joe Biden was never a popular candidate, even in his heyday. Both of his previous presidential runs ended in failure before he reached the primaries. When you add to that his current diminished condition, his strength in the polls is a mystery.
The only poll that matters will take place on Tuesday.
Ladies and gentlemen, fasten your seatbelts.
Source of all polling data: RealClearPolitics.