Study: Immigration Likely to Redistribute 26 Congressional Seats–Mostly from Red to Blue States
Immigration–both legal and illegal–will cause 26 congressional seats to be redistributed in 2020, according to a study from the Center for Immigration Studies (CIS).
Of those 26 seats, 24 are from red states which voted for Donald Trump in 2016.
A whopping 19 seats will go to heavily Democratic states, including 11 to California alone. New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, and Illinois will also see gains. Meanwhile, Texas remains the only Republican state to gain seats (four) and Florida, a swing state, will gain three seats.
Ohio, which voted for Trump in 2016, will lose three congressional seats due to the presence of immigrants and their children in other states. Michigan and Pennsylvania–also Trump states–will lose two seats.
Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, South Carolina, Tennessee, Utah, West Virginia, and Wisconsin will each lose one seat.
California, by 2020, is set to gain 11 congressional seats solely due to the fact that noncitizens, rather than just American citizens, are counted in congressional apportionment.
Likewise, New York — where nearly 40 percent of residents are foreign-born — is set to gain four more congressional seats and New Jersey, with a more than 22 percent foreign-born population, will also take an additional two congressional seats.
The publication notes that if only American citizens were counted in congressional apportionment, power would shift from coastal, blue states towards middle America.
**UPDATE: Matt Palumbo of Bongino.com clarified some of the confusion surrounding this report:
What the study actually said was that because we count legal non-citizens and illegal aliens in the Census for population (which determines how representation is apportioned), the cumulative effects of that are that Democrats have twenty-four more seats than they otherwise would’ve had we never counted non-citizens and illegals in the first place.
That is not to say that twenty-four seats are going to be redistributed in 2020 (and even having reported this in an earlier write-up of the study, I can still see why some were confused).
Of the changes specific to the 2020 Census, the inclusion “Illegal immigrants alone in 2020 will redistribute three seats, with Ohio, Alabama, and Minnesota each having one fewer seat than they otherwise would have had, while California, New York, and Texas will have one additional seat.” Texas is the only red state on the list, but it’s becoming increasingly purple. The inclusion of illegals and non-citizens “redistributes eight seats, with Ohio, Michigan, Missouri, Minnesota, Alabama, Idaho, West Virginia, and Rhode Island each having one fewer seat in 2020 due to the presence of non-citizens in other states. California will have three additional seats; Texas will have two more seats; and Florida, New Jersey, and New York will each have one more seat.”
The states picking up seats are Arizona (1), Colorado (1), Florida (2), Montana (1), North Carolina (1), Oregon (1), and Texas (3). Every state gaining seats voted for President Donald Trump in 2016, with the exception of Colorado and Oregon.
The states losing seats are Alabama (-1), California (-1) Illinois (-1), Michigan (-1), Minnesota (-1), New York (-1), Ohio (-1), Pennsylvania (-1), Rhode Island (-1), and West Virginia (-1). This list is more evenly split politically, with California, Illinois, New York, and Rhode Island having voted blue in 2016 (as they always tend to).
States that voted for Trump as gaining eight seats and losing five (for a net +3), while states that voted for Hillary Clinton are gaining two seats while losing four (for a net -2). In other words, states that votes for Trump are expected to see an increase in representation – albeit an insignificantly small one.
Note that this does not contradict the findings of what CIS found at all. The cumulative effects of counting immigrants (both legal and illegal) in population tolls have allowed representation to be disproportionate in blue states. However, when it comes to districts being redrawn specifically in 2020, there is no mass shift in favor of Democrats.
For the full report, click HERE.