Donald Trump’s speech yesterday at CPAC has a number of people putting their money where their mouths are when it comes to his chances in 2024.
“Hello CPAC – do you miss me yet?” Trump asked as he took the stage – with his question clearly answered by the applause.
In his speech Trump trashed Biden’s already-dismal record, sqashed rumors that he’d be starting a third party, called out every Republican who voted for impeachment, vowed to back Republican candidates to take back Congress, and teased a 2024 run. As he put it, “I might even decide to beat them a third time.”
And while it could just be a tease, many gamblers are still willing to wager on the proposition.
According to the betting odds aggregator OddsChecker:
Donald Trump’s currently the third favorite in the 2024 US election odds market, sitting behind Kamala Harris and Joe Biden.
The former presidents odds are 8/1 (+800), which implies Donald Trump has a 11.1% chance of winning the 2024 election.
As mentioned, Kamala Harris is currently the betting favorite with the sportsbooks to win the 2024 election. Harris’ odds are sitting at 4/1 (+400), which implies she’s got a 20% chance of winning the election in just under four years time.
The current POTUS, Joe Biden’s is the second favorite in the 2024 election betting market, with his odds at 5/1 (+500), which implies he’s got a 16.7% chance of winning the election.
The reasons the odds are so relatively low for Trump, Harris, and Biden is because of all the many other potential candidates who could enter the race, which is splintering the odds. Even an eventual GOP nominee who would have a 60% chance of defeating Biden in 2024 as the election neared would appear to be a massive underdog today for that reason.
Since making his appearance at CPAC, Donald Trump has accounted for 54% of all bets in the 2024 election betting market.
Donald Trump’s betting activity is head-and-shoulders above anyone else in the betting market. Kamala Harris has been the second most wagered candidate in the betting market, she’s accounted for 9.5% of bets since Donald Trump’s speech.
Ron DeSantis has been the third most wagered person in the market, just ahead of Ivanka Trump who has accounted for 4.7% of wagers.
Trump won CPAC’s straw poll with 55% of the vote – meaning that’s the percentage who said they’d vote for him in a hypothetical 2024 primary. Ron DeSantis placed second with 21% of the vote, and 4% picked Kristi Noem. Nearly 70% said they’d like to see Trump run again in 2024, and 95% said they want the GOP to continue with Trump’s agenda.
