Trump Leads Biden by Double Digits in Voter Enthusiasm
Even residing in a state as liberal as New Jersey, I have yet to come across a single Democrat (and there are many) that’s actually looking forward to voting for Joe Biden. The only argument I ever seem to hear is the clichéd “lesser of two evils” argument, which hardly reflects any enthusiasm.
While that evidence is anecdotal, the polling indicates it to be an accurate reflection of reality nationwide, as Trump is leading Biden massively in voter enthusiasm.
According to the Washington Examiner’s Paul Bedard, who is quoting the latest data from Emerson College Polling:
Democrat appear to be throwing in the towel. While Biden leads President Trump in a head-to-head matchup, 48%-42%, when voters overall were asked who they really think will win in November, it’s a Trump blowout, 57%-43%.
It must be noted in regards to the head-to-head matchup poll that national polling has flaws in a country like ours with an electoral college system (as was evident in the 2016 election). A more accurate way of looking at the polls for the purpose of predicting the outcome of the election would be to look at them on a state by state basis. That note aside:
Emerson found that Trump has a sizable 19-point advantage in the enthusiasm gap, 64%-45%. Some 36% of his supporters said they are “extremely excited” to vote for Trump, 28% said they are “very excited.” For Biden, those numbers are 22% and 23%.
Biden wins the “mildly excited” category, 29% to Trump’s 22%.
But he also wins the “not that excited” category, 26%-15%.
Rasmussen Reports is also out with polling data this morning in line with Emerson’s data:
Sixty percent (60%) of Likely U.S. Voters say a choice this November between President Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden is one they are excited about.
Thirty-four percent (34%) will simply be voting for the lesser of two evils instead.
Republicans (75%) are a lot more enthusiastic about a Trump-Biden matchup than Democrats (57%) and voters not affiliated with either major party (48%) are.
Only 20% of all voters say they are even somewhat likely to vote for a third-party presidential candidate if Trump and Biden are the nominees, with eight percent (8%) who are Very Likely to do so.
As I noted elsewhere, the leader in enthusiasm has won every election since at least 2004.
• 2016 – Hillary Clinton: 13-point deficit against Donald Trump.
• 2012 – Mitt Romney: 25-point deficit against President Obama.
• 2008 – John McCain: 33-point deficit against Barack Obama.
• 2004 – John Kerry: 16-point deficit against President George W. Bush.
Biden is doing even worse than Hillary was. And on that note, I doubt Hillary’s endorsement of him yesterday will help all that much.