Trump Maintains Lead Over Biden in Swing States

Trump Maintains Lead Over Biden in Swing States

When it comes to the battleground states that will decide the 2020 election, Biden is currently lagging in all of them.

According to The Hill:

A poll conducted by SSRS of 15 battleground states found former Vice President Joe Biden trailing President Trump.

The same poll, conducted for CNN, found Biden ahead of Trump nationally, but losing in the 15 states that might decide the vote in the Electoral College.

The poll did not include different surveys of each of the 15 states, but surveyed 583 people across 15 states that were decided by 8 points or fewer in 2016. The margin for the battleground states alone was 5.3 points.

The 15 states are Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.

Trump lead Biden in the poll across those states 52 percent to 45 percent.

The betting markets currently have Trump as the favorite to win the election (as you’d expect when he’s likely to win every swing state). The odds also offer some unique insights into the swing states, showing that Florida is the state where the odds are closest, indicating that oddsmakers believe it to be the most competitive state of the election.

According to the betting odds aggregator “OddsChecker,” as of May 15th, the odds to win Florida were -110 for Republicans (52.38% implied probability) and +100 for Democrats (50.00% implied probability)

Just two months ago, books were more convinced that the Republicans would win the Sunshine state. When the market opened on 5th March 2020, the GOP held a healthy lead with odds of -225 (69.25%) compared to just +163 (38.10%) for the Democrats.

Expect the odds to shift back to where they were in March as soon as Biden opens his mouth next.

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