If the polls hold constant, Donald Trump is on track to see an unprecedented explosion in Black support for a Republican candidate in recent history.
According to Fox:
Recent polling shows the former president could get a "historic" boost from Black voters in November if they continue to sour on President Biden, CNN data analyst Harry Enten reported.
"My goodness gracious," he said as he reacted to the polling average, which showed Trump's support among Black voters more than doubled to 22% compared to 2020. Biden, meanwhile, saw a 12% drop, though he still holds a 47-point lead.
If this continued into November, Trump could win a larger share of Black voters than any Republican candidate since 1960, Enten said. "This would be by far the best performance for a Republican candidate among Black voters in a generation, two generations, probably since 1960 and Richard Nixon against John F. Kennedy … This could be a truly historic margin," he said. "It’s quite a troubling sign for the Biden campaign."
Watch below:
For reference, Trump ended up garnering 7% of the black vote in 2020 (vs. the 9% CNN predicted), so there’s a slight margin of error here, but even Trump taking 20% of the black vote is historic, as can be seen in the chart below:
Since the 1990s Republican strategists have seen winning merely 20% of the black vote as enough to make the GOP unbeatable in an election (and others now put the figure around 15%), though obviously that’s only the case if increased support among black voters isn’t offset by other demographics voting Democrat. Though in the age of Biden, whatever demographic that would be remains a mystery.
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