We’re in the home stretch with less than two months until the election, and as always, it’ll be Independents who end up determining the victor. And in that case, Trump is eyeing a sizable forthcoming victory in the electoral college, and could even have a shot at winning the popular vote this cycle (which he lost by roughly 2 points in 2016).
According to a poll from Florida Atlantic University:
- Biden holds a 49 percent to 46 percent lead, with 5 percent undecided, but those undecideds are breaking for Trump 4:1, resulting in a statistical tie at 50 percent for each candidate.
- Roughly 9 percent of Florida voters surveyed said there is a chance they will change their minds, while 97 percent of Trump voters and 94 percent of Biden voters insist they will stick with their choices.
- Biden holds a 49 percent to 46 percent lead, with 5 percent undecided, but those undecideds are breaking for Trump 4:1, resulting in a statistical tie at 50 percent for each candidate.
While this is just Florida, if extrapolated to other key swing states it bodes well for Trump.
Even a tie in the popular vote practically guarantees Trump a victory. Because of how Trump is performing this far in key battleground states, Biden could need a 3-4 point in the popular vote just to have a greater than 50% chance of winning in the electoral college. Even if Biden leads the popular vote by a point there’s still a 94% chance Trump would become President, and the figure is 78% in Trump’s favor if Biden leads 1-2 points.
Chance of a Biden Electoral college win if he wins the popular vote by X points:
0-1 points: just 6%!
1-2 points: 22%
2-3 points: 46%
3-4 points: 74%
4-5 points: 89%
5-6 points: 98%
6-7 points: 99%— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) September 2, 2020
It must also be noted that the average poll understated Trump’s true support by roughly four percentage points in the 2016 election.
