Undecided Voters in Florida Are Leaning Trump by a 4:1 Margin

Undecided Voters in Florida Are Leaning Trump by a 4:1 Margin

We’re in the home stretch with less than two months until the election, and as always, it’ll be Independents who end up determining the victor. And in that case, Trump is eyeing a sizable forthcoming victory in the electoral college, and could even have a shot at winning the popular vote this cycle (which he lost by roughly 2 points in 2016).

According to a poll from Florida Atlantic University:

  • Biden holds a 49 percent to 46 percent lead, with 5 percent undecided, but those undecideds are breaking for Trump 4:1, resulting in a statistical tie at 50 percent for each candidate.
  • Roughly 9 percent of Florida voters surveyed said there is a chance they will change their minds, while 97 percent of Trump voters and 94 percent of Biden voters insist they will stick with their choices.
  • Biden holds a 49 percent to 46 percent lead, with 5 percent undecided, but those undecideds are breaking for Trump 4:1, resulting in a statistical tie at 50 percent for each candidate.

While this is just Florida, if extrapolated to other key swing states it bodes well for Trump.

Even a tie in the popular vote practically guarantees Trump a victory. Because of how Trump is performing this far in key battleground states, Biden could need a 3-4 point in the popular vote just to have a greater than 50% chance of winning in the electoral college. Even if Biden leads the popular vote by a point there’s still a 94% chance Trump would become President, and the figure is 78% in Trump’s favor if Biden leads 1-2 points.

It must also be noted that the average poll understated Trump’s true support by roughly four percentage points in the 2016 election.

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