Which Senate Seats Could Flip?
On the eve of Election Day, Republicans have narrowed the Democratic advantage in the polls to an almost dead heat. In the Senate races, Republicans believe they have the chance to pickup wins in North Dakota, Missouri, and Indiana, while the races in Montana and Florida remain too close to call.
Republicans feel confident that they will not lose any Senate incumbent seats up for re-election, which is a dramatic change from only months ago when Democrats were claiming a “Blue Wave.” With President Trump’s approval rating at its highest levels, we are seeing the polling in Senate races respond accordingly.
With many surprises still in store, let’s look at some races that are sure to entertain:
North Dakota – Sen.Heidi Heitkamp is the incumbent Democratic Senator with a major chance of losing the race to Republican challenger Rep. Kevin Cramer. Polls have shown a slight tightening in the race, however, Cramer still holds an 11 point advantage according to Real Clear Politics. Heitkamp’s path to victory would include winning over voters in the eastern part of the state as well as moderates, and increased turnout for Native American voters.
Missouri – Sen. Claire McCaskill is the incumbent Democratic Senator running as a “moderate” which has been a prime target of President Trump in recent days as he hits the campaign trail to stump for Republican challenger Attorney General Josh Hawley. Some polls show Hawley ahead by a few points, but they seem to be in a statistical dead heat. McCaskill’s strategy has been to align herself closely with President Trump’s agenda, however, Trump is convinced that Missouri will “retire far-left Democrat Claire McCaskill.”
Indiana – In 2016, President Trump won this state by 16 points and incumbent Democratic Senator Joe Donnelly knows it. He has tried to align himself with Trump’s agenda but voters are beginning to see through this strategy as the polls begin to narrow. Donnelly still holds a slight advantage of 7 points over Republican challenger Mike Braun according to the latest Fox News poll. Republicans view this race as a toss-up but remain optimistic that Republican turnout will be at an all-time high.
Arizona – With the retirement of incumbent Republican Senator Jeff Flake, Democrats have viewed this race as a good opportunity to flip this seat blue. Republican Martha McSally remains in a dead heat with Democrat Rep. Kyrsten Sinema. Because Democrats are not trying to unseat an incumbent Republican, the race is extremely close with a slight advantage to Sinema according to the latest polls.
Nevada – In a state won by Hillary Clinton in 2016, the incumbent Republican Dean Heller has been a target by Democrats to flip the seat to challenger Rep. Jacky Rosen. Heller campaigned as a big Trump supporter and remains 2 points ahead according to the latest Real Clear Politics polling.
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