We all know from the past two election cycles, and the past midterm elections, that the polls aren’t all they’re cracked up to be.
While they are one of the best gauges of public opinion, they’re hardly prophetic. State-level polls are even worse. According to one study, election polls are 60% accurate, which is only ten percentage points away from a coin toss.
Betting markets (which have Donald Trump as the 2024 favorite), for instance, tend to be more reliable than polls.
But we still can use the polls, if we build in a margin of error, and assume that there will be a similar error as in past elections where the polls were off, to potentially figure out where they really land.
Surprisingly, it was on CNN that such a scenario was reported. Henry Enten who, is the network’s senior data reporter, predicted a Trump blowout if the polls, which show a tight race, are as inaccurate again.
As Fox reported;
Enten broke down current swing state polling numbers between Vice President Kamala Harris and Trump, noting that they show a race "too close to call." However, he pointed out that polls have been off significantly in recent elections, and if that’s the case this time, Trump could win by a landslide.
"But let’s say we have a polling miss like we had in 2020," Enten told CNN anchor John Berman.
"What happens then? Well, then Donald Trump wins the election in a blowout with 312 electoral votes because he carries all these Great Lake battleground states plus Nevada, plus the other states he was leading in — Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia," he said.
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