According to a new report from the Center for Immigration Studies (CIS), the illegal alien population has grown nearly 14% since Joe Biden took office.
As summarized by the Washington Examiner:
Numbers reviewed by the Census Bureau and the Bureau of Labor Statistics show that the illegal population grew from 10.2 million when Biden took office to 11.6 million in April.
âThis means that illegal immigrants accounted for some 1.35 million (about two-thirds) of the two million growth in the total foreign-born population since President Biden took office,â according to the CIS analysis.
These figures, based off Census Bureau data, would indicate that illegal aliens now account for roughly 3.5% of the U.S. population, but they’re really a bare minimum estimate.
As Tucker Carlson pointed out in a monologue last year, nearly everyone estimating the number of illegals in the country is going off the Census Bureauâs American Community Survey . “The Census Bureau tallies up the number of foreign-born people they’ve identified who live in this country, then estimate or subtract the number of foreign-born people known to be in the U.S. legally. Bingo, 11 million.”
But as the former director of the Census Bureau puts it, “There is no magic bullet that anyone has discovered to count this population [illegal immigrants]. This is really very difficult to estimate,” as illegals donât tend to respond to census takers. The “11+ million illegals” projection assumes that unlikely premise that 90% of illegals are willing to cooperate with Census takers.
Hilariously, Ann Coulter traced back this â90%â estimate to a 2001 study from the University of California, where 829 people born in Mexico and Los Angeles were asked if they respond to census interviews. 40% of households didnât answer the survey, but of the remaining 60% that did, 90% of them said they respond to census interviews. In other words, people who respond to surveys say they respond to surveys.
Amazingly, the government concluded from this that 90% of illegals respond to the census, while only 60% bothered to respond to their survey about responding to the census.
A 2018 study from Yale University aimed to reproduce the Censusâ American Community Surveyâs (then estimate of) 11.3 million illegals using operational data, such as deportations and visa overstays, demographic data, death rates, and immigration rates. The result â that the actual number of illegals was roughly double, surprised the authors, who said they expected to just be doing a “sanity check” on the Censusâ figures.
While the logic is simpleâtally the inflows and outflows over timeâactually gathering, assessing, and inserting the data appropriately into a mathematical model isnât at all simple. Because there is significant uncertainty, the results are presented as a range. After running 1,000,000 simulations of the model, the researchersâ 95% probability range is 16 million to 29 million, with 22.1 million as the mean.
Bear Stearns came to a similar conclusion in 2005 by looking at bank transfers and remittances from the U.S. to Mexico; “Our research has identified significant evidence that the census estimates of undocumented immigrants may be capturing as little as half of the total undocumented population. This gross undercounting is a serious accounting issue which could ultimately lead to government policy errors in the future.”
Matt Palumbo is the author of The Man Behind the Curtain: Inside the Secret Network of George Soros
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